A prolonged crisis in the Gulf region could put almost $94bn of anticipated global advertising growth at risk over the next 18 months, according to new analysis from WARC.
The marketing intelligence firm’s latest forecast shows the global advertising market is still expected to grow by 11.5% this year to reach $1.39trn, buoyed by a strong first half for online platforms.
However, ongoing disruption linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could remove as much as $39.6bn from global ad growth in 2026 alone, with a further $54.1bn at risk in 2027.
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The findings are likely to be closely watched by agencies, media owners and brands across the North, particularly those working in manufacturing, automotive, retail, food and travel sectors that remain heavily exposed to rising energy costs and supply chain disruption.
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC, said: “As the Gulf Crisis stretches into its fourth month, global markets are now in damage limitation mode as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acts like a tax on consumers, lifting prices and squeezing real spending power.
“If the conflict drags on – or further intensifies – these risks shift toward stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive, and food acutely exposed to higher production costs and weaker demand. The net effect is a grueling squeeze on margins that could put as much as $94bn of anticipated ad market growth at risk over the coming 18 months.”
UK growth remains positive, but cracks are emerging
While the UK advertising market is still forecast to grow by 6.3% this year, WARC’s modelling suggests a more severe scenario could remove more than three percentage points from growth across major European markets.
The warning comes as businesses across the North continue to navigate rising operating costs and economic uncertainty. The sectors facing the greatest pressure include travel, automotive and food – all major advertisers and significant parts of many northern economies.
Travel and transport is already forecast to be the worst-performing major advertising category globally, with spend expected to fall 3.5% this year to $34.4bn.
Automotive budgets are also under pressure. In Germany, one of Europe’s largest car manufacturing markets, automotive ad spend growth is forecast at just 1.9% this year and could swing into a 4.2% contraction if conditions worsen.
Food brands may be next in line. While global food advertising is still expected to grow 10.3% this year, WARC says rising fertiliser, fuel, packaging and logistics costs are likely to have a greater impact during the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
In the UK specifically, food advertising growth is forecast at 4.9% under current conditions but could fall into contraction (-0.2%) in a severe scenario.
Search and social emerge as relative winners
The research points to a growing divide between performance-led and brand-building channels as advertisers look for greater certainty amid economic volatility.
Paid search, including generative AI-powered search, is forecast to remain the most resilient major channel. Even under WARC’s most severe scenario, search advertising is still expected to grow by 11% this year.
Social media also remains comparatively robust, with growth easing from 20% to 17.9% in the most severe scenario modelled.
By contrast, traditional brand-building channels face significantly greater pressure.
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Linear TV advertising is forecast to decline by 2.7% this year under WARC’s baseline scenario, while publishing could contract by 8.5% and cinema by 4% under the most severe outlook.
The findings echo concerns raised by agency leaders at a recent Prolific North roundtable in Manchester, where profitability, client retention and demonstrating measurable value emerged as key themes.
WARC’s latest analysis suggests those pressures may intensify if the Gulf crisis continues to drive up costs and squeeze consumer spending.
Even under the most disruptive conditions modelled, search, social and retail media are expected to account for around two-thirds of global advertising spend, highlighting the continued shift towards performance-led channels.
Uneven impact across global markets
Despite the warning, WARC has upgraded its overall global advertising forecast from 10.6% to 11.5% this year, reflecting stronger-than-expected performance from online platforms during the first half of 2026.
The impact of the crisis is expected to vary significantly by region.
The UK advertising market is forecast to grow by 6.3% this year, although a more severe scenario could remove more than three percentage points from growth across major European markets.
The US remains relatively insulated and is forecast to grow by 9.5%, supported by both the FIFA World Cup and Midterm elections.
By contrast, Southeast Asia and Latin America are among the regions most exposed to disruption, while advertising markets in Gulf states could slip into contraction if the conflict escalates further.
For agencies with strong search, social, ecommerce and performance marketing capabilities, the outlook may prove more resilient than for businesses reliant on traditional brand advertising budgets.
Media owners face a more challenging picture, particularly in publishing and broadcast sectors where advertisers may increasingly prioritise channels capable of demonstrating short-term returns.
The result is a global advertising market that remains on course for record growth, but one where the gap between brand-building and performance marketing may become increasingly pronounced if economic uncertainty persists.
