UK marketers are pouring more money than ever into influencer marketing but most still can’t explain whether it actually works.
More than half say proving return on investment is their single biggest frustration with the channel, exposing a widening gap between how influence is built and how it is measured in practice.
That is the central finding of new research from Manchester-based agency Smoking Gun, which surveyed 100 senior UK marketers for its latest report, The New Influencer Battleground.
Despite the measurement challenge, confidence in the channel remains high, according to the research. Nearly two thirds (64%) of brands say they plan to increase investment in influencer marketing in 2026, yet many still struggle to articulate what is genuinely driving impact beyond surface-level metrics such as views, reach and engagement.
The report argues that while marketers can track visibility with ease, they often lack a shared understanding of how creator storytelling builds trust, shapes preference and leads to action.
To address that gap, The New Influencer Battleground introduces a human-centred evaluation framework Smoking Gun says can help brands assess whether creator partnerships are psychologically set up to succeed before results appear. Rather than replacing traditional performance metrics, the framework is intended to sit alongside them, offering earlier signals of likely effectiveness.
Developed in collaboration with behavioural psychologist Dr Eleanor Bryant, Associate Professor of Psychology at the University of Bradford, the framework draws on parasocial psychology, narrative theory and behavioural science. It focuses on four core drivers of influence: meaning, credibility, connection and action.
Rick Guttridge, CEO of Smoking Gun, said: “Influencer marketing has grown faster than the tools used to evaluate it. Our research shows confidence in the channel is high, but frustration around how to design and measure content to prove business impact is even higher.
“Brands are investing serious money, yet too often they are relying on surface-level signals that explain what happened, not why it happened. We work every day at the intersection of creator storytelling, behavioural insight and commercial performance, and this report brings that thinking together in a way brands can actually use.
“If influencer marketing is going to keep growing, it needs clearer standards and a better understanding of the human forces that make influence work.”
Five key findings from The New Influencer Battleground
* 59% of UK marketers say proving ROI is their biggest frustration in influencer marketing, despite growing confidence in the channel.
* 64% plan to increase influencer marketing investment in 2026, with only 7% expecting budgets to fall.
* 79% believe consumers trust influencer content as much as, or more than, traditional marketing, underlining creators’ growing credibility.
* Marketers continue to rely heavily on surface-level metrics that explain what happened, rather than why a piece of creator content worked.
* Human-centred signals such as emotional resonance, trust, narrative strength and audience connection are stronger indicators of long-term influence than EMV or engagement alone.
Dr Bryant says creator influence is not just a ‘media effect, it is a psychological one’. “When audiences feel emotionally connected to creators, stories are processed more deeply, remembered for longer and more likely to shape behaviour,” she said. “Understanding these mechanisms allows brands to evaluate influence in a way that reflects how people actually think, feel and decide, rather than relying solely on surface-level signals.”
The report also challenges the industry’s growing reliance on metrics such as Earned Media Value (EMV), describing them as the creator economy’s equivalent of AVE. It argues that while such measures can inflate perceived value, they offer little insight into genuine business impact.
Instead, the research calls for more human-centred indicators that capture emotional resonance, trust and narrative strength, alongside traditional performance data.
The New Influencer Battleground marks the second major release from Smoking Gun’s Intention Unit, the agency’s specialist team focused on understanding how influence works and how it can be measured with greater confidence.
