UK advertising spend is forecast to grow 7.5% in 2026 and surpass £50bn for the first time, according to the latest Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure analysis.
The report’s authors sounded a note of caution around economic uncertainty, but the projection marks a notable upgrade in confidence compared with AA/Warc’s previous 2026 forecast of 6.6% growth to £49.1bn.
The findings were published alongside AA/Warc’s analysis of UK adspend performance in the third quarter of 2025, where the market rose 11.4% year-on-year to £12.5bn. Overall adspend increased 9.8% to £34.5bn in the three-month period.
Digital channels remained dominant, with the majority of spend (83%) between July and September accounted for by search and online display – up 14.6% year on year.
Cinema and audio post standout gains
While online formats took the largest share, Q3 also saw significant movement across other channels. Cinema was the fastest-growing category, surging 23.9% in Q3, helped by summer blockbusters including The Fantastic Four: First Steps, The Conjuring: Last Rites and Downtown Abbey: The Grand Finale.
Online radio also saw strong momentum, with spend up 19.2%. AA/Warc said the increase aligned with Rajar data showing commercial radio had taken a record 56% share of listening, driven by audiences tuning in via apps and smart speakers.
Sport boosts VOD and out of home as print and direct mail continue to fall
Sport provided another lift to advertising demand in Q3, particularly around ad-supported streaming platforms, with VOD rising 17%.
That growth across both linear and VOD was fuelled by major events including the Fifa Club World Cup and the success of England’s women’s teams in the Uefa Women’s Europs and the Rugby World Cup.
Out of home also saw a rise of 4.4%, supported by growth in digital OOH (+3.3%). However, the report highlighted ongoing pressure across other more traditional channels.
Magazine brands saw the biggest decline (-4.8%), while national newsbrands were down 2%, regional papers fell 2.6%, and direct mail slipped 3.2%.
Five-year expansion streak set to continue
Looking at the full year, AA/Warc expects UK adspend to grow 10.1% to £46.9bn in 2025, which would make it the fifth consecutive year of market expansion.
For 2026, AA/Warc expects VOD to deliver the strongest growth at 13.8%, boosted by major sporting moments including the Fifa World Cup.
Search, online display and online radio are forecast to rise 10.2%, 8.4% and 7.3% respectively, while out of home is expected to grow by 3.7%.
Stephen Woodford, chief executive of the Advertising Association, said: “These latest figures underline once again how businesses of all sizes and shapes invest in advertising to help them grow. Whether it is an SME or a multi-national organisation, the spend on advertising supports innovation, competition and job creation. This data reflects the valuable audiences around major sporting events, showing how the public still enjoy shared experiences, which advertising can enhance through engaging and positive storytelling.”
James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at Warc, said: “Despite a challenging economic backdrop marred by subdued household incomes, a softening labour market and ongoing geopolitical turmoil, the latest AA/Warc data suggest an enduring resilience across the UK’s advertising market. Strong double-digit growth in 2025 reflects a continued focus on performance, reach and association with culturally relevant moments, from major sporting events to unmissable live concerts.
“That UK adspend is on track to surpass £50bn for the first time this year underpins this conviction, with brands continuing to invest to stay competitive, build trust and engage audiences, even as the wider macroeconomic picture remains unfavourable.”
