The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has apologised after a “technical error” led to the bulk of today’s budget being accidentally published online an hour or so before Rachael Reeves stood up in parliament to make her hotly anticipated announcement.
The OBR added that it has launched an investigation into the event and said it will “make sure it never happens again.” In better news for the beleaguered Chancellor, it said that its “fiscal outlook and supporting documents will be released when the Chancellor has finished her speech.”
Early analysis of the 200+ page document suggests Reeves’ budget will more than double her current fiscal headroom to around £22bn in 2029, from just under £10bn currently, raise almost £30bn more in tax, with the biggest changes to kick in from 2028, and about £26bn due to be raised from tax in 2029-30. and increase spending by £11.8bn by 2029.
Meanwhile, the OBR has upgraded its growth forecast for this year to 1.5% from 1%, although it appears to have largely downgraded future growth forecasts to 2029.
The higher-rate threshold and additional-rate threshold will be frozen at their current rates of £12,570, £50,270 and £125,140, respectively, until 2030-31, an extra three years on top of the current freeze.
Th chancellor is also increasing the tax rates on dividends, property and savings income by 2 percentage points, which will raise £2.1bn, while salary-sacrificed pension contributions above an annual £2,000 threshold will no longer be exempt from national insurance contributions from April 2029.
In better news for Reeves, the lending markets seemed to like some of the sneak preview – the UK’s lending costs begin to drop following the leak of the document.
More to follow…
