The global advertising market is on course for stronger-than-expected growth in 2025, following a second-quarter windfall for social media platforms, according to WARC’s latest Global Ad Forecast.
Ad spend is now projected to rise 7.4% this year to $1.17trn – the first upgrade in more than a year and 1.2 percentage points higher than the forecast issued in June. Growth is expected to accelerate further to 8.1% in 2026, taking the total market to $1.27trn, with a further 7.1% increase forecast for 2027. By then, global ad spend will have doubled since the pandemic-hit year of 2020.
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James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC and author of the report, said: “Global ad spend is growing rapidly, with digital-first platforms capturing almost all the new money. Despite economic headwinds, including disruption to global trade and reduced purchasing power among consumers, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, while emerging players like TikTok are growing fast but from smaller bases. The global market is set to nearly double in value since the pandemic, underscoring the resilience of advertising in a tougher economic climate.”
Nine in ten new ad dollars are being funnelled into online-only platforms. Social media remains the largest single channel, attracting 40.6% of incremental spend, ahead of non-retail search (22.2%) and retail media (21.5%).
Meta, Alphabet and Amazon now command a combined 55.8% share of global ad spend outside China, equivalent to $524.4bn in 2025, with their dominance expected to rise above 60% by 2030.
Social media ad spend alone is set to climb 14.9% this year to $306.4bn – more than a quarter (26.2%) of all ad investment – driven by sharp rises in spend from retailers and tech brands in the run-up to new US trade tariffs on so-called “Freedom Day.” Instagram and TikTok recorded the fastest growth in Q2, with spend up 18.8% and 56.8% respectively.
Meanwhile, search advertising is forecast to grow 10% this year to $253.2bn, with Google taking an estimated 86% share of that market. Retail media will account for $175bn of ad spend in 2025, with Amazon claiming more than a third ($62bn).
Despite the strong overall outlook, traditional media continues to decline in real terms. Between 2020 and 2027, magazines are expected to see spend fall by almost half (-49.9%), newspapers by 45.8% and broadcast TV by 35.2%. In contrast, YouTube is projected to record growth of 85.4% over the same period, while Amazon’s retail platform is forecast to more than triple its real ad revenues.
